ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013 IT APPEARS THAT GIL IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BECOME QUITE COMPACT WITH NO INDICATION OF AN EYE...AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. GIL WILL BE REACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5. IT SEEMS THAT GIL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FREE ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. EVEN THOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...GIL STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS. DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LIMITS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE BIGGEST INHIBITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT THEN FOLLOWS A WEAKENING RATE SIMILAR TO SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.3N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 15.3N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 15.3N 133.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN