ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013 THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE CENTER AND IN SMALL BANDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW 275/8. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AFTER THAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THIS MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND IN PART TO THE MODEL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CURRENTLY ABOUT 575 N MI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GIL. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST RELIES ON THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN. GIL IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IT SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING THAT GIL COULD INGEST DRIER AIR. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GIL COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT TIME. THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 15.0N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 13.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 13.0N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 13.0N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 13.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN