ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 GIL HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT SEVEN HOURS NOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE IT DID NOT CAPTURE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE...IT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT MAINLY BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DUE TO STABLE AIR...20 KT OF SHEAR...AND BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ... GIL MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...GIL COULD BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SOON AS LATER TODAY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A RELATIVELY MINOR RELOCATION WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/8 KT. WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE SHALLOW AND IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ON THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVING TO DO WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER... SHOWING GIL BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS AND MOVING MUCH MORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY AS FAST AS THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE SINCE GIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.6N 135.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.2N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.7N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 13.1N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 12.6N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 12.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 11.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 11.5N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN