ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. DRY AIR ALOFT...INCREASING WIND SHEAR...AND MARGINAL SSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NARDA. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/11. THE STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW MUCH IT SLOWS DOWN BY EITHER BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE ITCZ...LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST...OR STAYING SEPARATE...LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0600Z 16.6N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 16.4N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN