ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 NARDA CONTINUES TO GENEATE DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL BAND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES 6-9 HOURS AGO INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HOURS. NARDA NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/2. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0000Z 15.7N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0000Z 14.7N 132.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN