ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013 THE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. THE EYE HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE LATEST DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.5/102 KT...WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. RAYMOND DRIFTED NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AGAIN. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. IN FACT...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AROUND 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.3N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN