ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG- TERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF DELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN