ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 ALTHOUGH RAYMOND DOES NOT RESEMBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT RAYMOND WILL RE-INTENSIFY A LITTLE IN A DAY OR SO...SINCE THE ECMWF AND THE GFS REVERSE THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN ADDITION...RAYMOND IS MOVING TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY EVEN MORE...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE TRAPPED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL RAYMOND LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN WHICH BOTH THE RELIABLE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 14.3N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 14.0N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 13.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN