ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013 RAYMOND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS SINCE EARLIER TODAY...WITH A PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS TAKEN ON A MORE CIRCULAR SHAPE...AND A 2249 UTC TRMM PASS ALSO SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...SIGNALING THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 3.5 AT 0000 UTC...AND ADT VALUES ARE ON THE RISE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. RAYMOND SHOULD MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF STORM SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA EJECTS EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT...RAYMOND MAY ATTEMPT A RECURVATURE BEFORE SHEARING APART...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD...LIKELY BE DRAWN IN THIS DIRECTION DUE TO A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HOLDS THE LINE BY FAVORING THE MORE EASTERN ECWMF SOLUTION UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT A DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. RAYMOND FINALLY APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS FOR INTENSIFICATION. SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND OVER 27-28C WATERS...THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER CORE SUGGEST THAT RAYMOND WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE SUBJECTED TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED TO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN AS SOON AS 72 HOURS. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT IS LITTLE CHANGED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 13.5N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 15.3N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 16.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN