ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT RAYMOND UNDERWENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROBABLY ENDED. THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CLOUD-OBSCURED EYE. HOWEVER A SHARP EDGE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC WAS 5.0...AND ADT VALUES HAVE RECENTLY LEVELED OFF AROUND THAT VALUE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT. RAYMOND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FORWARD MOTION COULD SLOW TO A CRAWL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LOW. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS...ALONG WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A VERY QUICK DEMISE AFTER THAT TIME...WITH RAYMOND LIKELY DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR PERHAPS SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 15.3N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 16.1N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 17.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 18.3N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN