ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013 RAYMOND IS STILL PRODUCING A SIZEABLE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE PLUMMETING...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORTS DOWNGRADING RAYMOND TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND RAYMOND SHOULD CONTINUE A RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. COUPLED WITH COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...THE SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO KEEP PACE WITH THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS ICON...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...SHOW EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BELOW. RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 005/6 KT...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST. ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE 12Z CYCLES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MOVING FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS SHOWN BY THESE MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 16.8N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 17.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 18.6N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 19.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 20.1N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN