ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013 DESPITE RECENTLY PRODUCING A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION... RAYMOND IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG JET STREAK...AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE THEREFORE LOWERED TO 45 KT. THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN... BUT STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS RAYMOND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 005/5 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD ONLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE REMNANT LOW IS THEN LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 19.6N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 20.0N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN