ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013 A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND STRETCHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND IS CORROBORATED BY A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY HAVE LET UP JUST A LITTLE BIT TODAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING RAYMOND TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EARNEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE HARDER AND HARDER FOR RAYMOND TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHILE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND TOWARD DRIER AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS RAYMOND ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS INDICATED BY DAY 3...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER COULD LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST...OR 020/5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED BY THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MEANDER WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 18.5N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 19.9N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 20.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN