ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. A CURVED BAND FEATURE IS ATTEMPTING TO REFORM WEST OF THE CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE BAND HAS BEEN BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT OR MODERATE SHEAR. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR STRONGER STORM SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SHOWING ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FIXES SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A BIT SOUTHEAST OF MY PREVIOUS POSITION...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3...A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW LIKELY CAUSING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD SINALOA...AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...THOUGH IT STILL LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE DISSIPATED BY 96H...BUT A POINT IS GIVEN FOR CONTINUITY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 16.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.5N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 24.7N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z 28.0N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN