ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 2100 UTC SUN OCT 20 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.8W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 101.8W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 101.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN