* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012013 05/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 50 56 63 65 66 65 56 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 50 56 63 65 66 65 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 54 54 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 12 9 4 5 8 8 12 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -4 -5 1 -3 -4 -4 -1 8 17 8 SHEAR DIR 307 294 290 297 304 334 230 169 142 139 179 241 239 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 160 159 157 154 152 149 143 137 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 69 71 71 69 68 67 67 68 62 60 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 12 14 16 16 17 18 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -6 -10 -12 -8 -12 -7 -1 5 -2 1 3 200 MB DIV 65 37 35 38 44 75 94 138 148 112 67 45 26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 5 2 8 LAND (KM) 1035 1059 1083 1098 1117 1161 1213 1242 1296 1342 1334 1295 1224 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.6 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.1 104.2 105.3 106.3 107.2 108.8 110.3 111.9 113.5 115.0 116.3 117.4 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 44 51 43 34 35 37 26 15 9 7 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 12. 14. 15. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 26. 33. 35. 36. 35. 26. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ONE 05/15/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)