* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 53 64 72 78 79 73 63 51 41 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 53 64 72 78 79 73 63 51 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 45 47 52 57 63 66 66 60 51 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 3 3 2 3 3 9 13 24 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 3 10 5 5 3 8 14 18 8 5 SHEAR DIR 297 291 314 315 111 42 195 210 154 216 264 255 264 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 26.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 161 159 158 154 151 149 145 139 132 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 71 73 70 71 70 70 70 71 66 61 54 49 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 16 18 19 20 20 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 -5 -6 -2 2 5 13 19 9 19 27 29 200 MB DIV 39 47 45 70 90 85 66 85 150 79 86 50 27 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1051 1073 1085 1106 1134 1175 1207 1227 1267 1249 1249 1176 1066 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.5 14.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.7 106.7 107.6 108.5 110.0 111.5 112.8 114.0 115.2 116.5 117.2 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 34 31 32 36 31 21 16 9 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 37. 43. 44. 38. 28. 16. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/15/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)