* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 54 62 69 70 66 54 47 34 28 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 54 62 69 70 66 54 47 34 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 49 50 51 51 53 55 52 46 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 7 6 7 4 6 11 15 19 23 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 6 5 8 2 5 7 15 9 18 8 4 SHEAR DIR 277 279 222 238 270 210 176 176 207 250 254 264 274 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 160 158 155 152 150 146 141 136 130 124 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 72 71 69 69 67 65 55 52 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 16 19 18 17 15 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -11 -3 -3 -3 0 2 11 2 14 16 32 200 MB DIV 69 72 90 123 77 70 127 123 89 44 75 15 -5 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 2 3 1 4 2 7 2 3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1062 1057 1062 1069 1080 1128 1178 1218 1214 1189 1181 1160 1136 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.1 108.9 110.5 112.0 113.3 114.4 115.4 116.3 117.1 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 34 30 28 30 35 27 19 13 9 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 11. 11. 10. 6. 8. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 22. 29. 30. 26. 14. 7. -6. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 57% is 4.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 31% is 11.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)