* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 52 55 56 60 59 55 48 33 27 18 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 52 55 56 60 59 55 48 33 27 18 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 50 51 50 47 44 43 41 39 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 10 11 13 10 16 17 17 20 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 13 9 6 2 3 6 7 11 13 9 1 SHEAR DIR 283 265 244 260 263 239 205 188 201 193 241 248 265 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.9 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 157 153 150 149 145 140 131 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 72 68 68 67 64 60 57 57 47 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 14 14 17 17 18 17 13 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -15 -9 -3 -7 -5 -5 3 -5 -1 5 14 16 200 MB DIV 66 66 97 89 101 89 147 138 144 106 18 44 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 2 2 1 3 2 5 10 1 4 0 LAND (KM) 1087 1091 1104 1113 1126 1149 1188 1212 1188 1156 1127 1116 1105 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.9 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.4 108.3 109.1 109.8 111.3 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.5 116.6 117.2 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 30 32 34 32 22 18 13 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 9. 10. 9. 4. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 15. 14. 10. 3. -12. -18. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)