* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 46 48 51 49 41 35 28 20 16 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 46 48 51 49 41 35 28 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 45 44 40 38 36 34 30 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 12 14 7 14 18 18 21 15 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 10 11 1 2 6 7 6 9 11 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 268 259 262 258 211 190 214 218 222 206 242 286 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 159 155 152 150 147 143 137 133 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 68 70 68 66 66 61 62 61 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 13 14 16 15 14 15 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -4 -10 -12 -11 -18 -9 -15 -12 -5 -2 0 200 MB DIV 66 98 77 88 79 114 144 120 129 99 66 14 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 4 4 7 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1091 1101 1113 1126 1138 1177 1218 1256 1239 1236 1231 1258 1314 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.3 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.7 110.5 112.1 113.2 114.4 115.6 116.6 117.1 117.9 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 32 38 46 32 22 14 11 6 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 4. -4. -10. -17. -25. -29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)