* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 36 40 40 42 38 31 23 19 16 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 36 40 40 42 38 31 23 19 16 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 32 29 27 26 25 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 13 11 10 12 23 14 16 7 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 12 11 6 4 3 4 0 7 5 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 270 258 259 253 252 224 196 239 225 245 248 276 301 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 156 153 151 149 144 139 136 137 136 135 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 71 69 66 66 63 61 54 52 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 8 11 13 12 15 14 14 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 -7 -11 -8 -8 -12 -8 -10 -7 -9 6 1 200 MB DIV 82 95 93 117 137 157 131 155 108 58 29 31 5 700-850 TADV 0 6 2 2 -1 2 2 3 5 7 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1146 1155 1170 1187 1213 1296 1340 1313 1334 1385 1480 1554 1599 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.5 13.1 13.4 13.2 13.2 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.5 110.2 111.1 112.0 113.6 114.7 115.9 117.3 118.5 119.6 120.6 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 10 9 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 42 42 33 17 13 11 7 9 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -24. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 7. 7. 4. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -4. 0. 0. 2. -2. -9. -17. -21. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/16/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)