* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 35 38 41 41 37 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 35 38 41 41 37 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 26 25 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 15 12 12 8 8 24 24 19 15 13 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 6 4 4 6 8 2 9 7 6 0 4 SHEAR DIR 276 274 275 256 267 219 226 253 228 234 244 293 300 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 154 153 152 149 144 140 137 136 137 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 71 69 66 66 66 66 57 57 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 9 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 -13 -11 -10 -22 -24 -27 -26 -20 -9 0 0 200 MB DIV 117 129 129 134 137 161 107 90 51 25 23 0 -12 700-850 TADV 5 0 0 -5 -6 -2 2 2 2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1209 1218 1229 1236 1250 1314 1323 1353 1409 1494 1598 1680 1752 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.1 114.4 115.9 117.3 118.6 119.8 121.0 122.3 123.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 38 29 22 13 8 6 9 3 1 3 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 817 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. 0. 3. 6. 6. 2. -4. -12. -19. -24. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)