* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 39 41 44 40 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 39 41 44 40 32 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 8 7 14 27 31 21 12 10 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 1 0 5 12 7 11 11 8 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 301 262 257 220 203 206 254 242 246 249 267 326 345 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 152 150 146 142 140 139 139 140 141 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 75 71 68 66 66 63 55 50 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -16 -13 -9 -7 -15 -20 -22 -4 -9 8 7 22 200 MB DIV 114 116 111 105 138 131 79 33 26 13 -2 -22 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1253 1269 1291 1307 1328 1348 1397 1477 1573 1663 1746 1826 1916 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.0 113.7 114.3 115.6 117.1 118.7 120.2 121.3 122.2 123.3 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 32 23 18 14 9 8 12 4 2 5 12 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 827 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 5. -3. -10. -17. -23. -25. -22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)