* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 17 19 22 46 48 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 7 5 10 -1 0 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 258 234 205 210 254 250 255 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 146 143 140 134 128 121 116 113 110 111 116 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 68 67 64 62 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -16 -23 -26 -26 -33 -32 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 102 110 124 125 106 33 33 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 0 2 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1226 1249 1237 1224 1216 1213 1214 1201 1214 1268 1359 1468 1598 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.1 114.7 115.3 115.9 117.1 118.2 119.0 119.9 120.9 122.3 123.8 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 13 10 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -18. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -9. -18. -27. -38. -46. -52. -56. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/17/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)