* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 13 19 21 30 42 40 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 10 10 3 6 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 239 205 209 238 258 257 264 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 142 139 135 130 125 122 124 126 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 71 69 65 65 60 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -19 -21 -19 -26 -25 -28 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 112 125 127 101 69 52 -19 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1299 1301 1303 1308 1319 1349 1378 1405 1448 1521 1624 1732 1825 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.5 117.2 118.6 119.8 120.8 121.8 122.9 124.4 125.8 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 9 8 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -11. -22. -33. -40. -47. -53. -57. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/18/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)