* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/18/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 23 28 40 38 32 31 22 12 13 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 11 8 4 5 5 -3 -2 -2 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 227 203 210 239 249 250 251 273 271 282 269 276 239 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 140 138 136 132 126 125 126 129 129 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 68 69 65 62 53 47 42 37 38 32 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -27 -29 -28 -31 -25 -33 -11 -12 8 0 17 200 MB DIV 140 124 79 95 84 50 13 -23 -45 -28 -30 -11 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -2 -4 -1 0 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1328 1330 1337 1356 1380 1421 1454 1507 1590 1687 1795 1909 2012 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.2 118.0 118.8 120.2 121.4 122.5 123.7 125.0 126.3 127.8 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -29. -33. -37. -40. -42. -41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/18/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)