* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 32 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 32 30 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 28 36 33 28 33 23 17 12 10 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 8 2 6 9 -1 -3 -3 -2 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 205 210 239 256 258 242 263 270 275 277 278 236 244 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 139 139 136 130 128 127 130 132 129 125 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 66 64 60 54 47 45 38 35 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -26 -28 -29 -31 -29 -28 -23 -12 -3 3 2 18 200 MB DIV 131 83 96 84 62 47 1 -27 -40 -19 -15 -5 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -1 0 -1 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1348 1355 1368 1397 1432 1473 1519 1575 1668 1774 1899 1999 2104 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.7 118.6 119.4 120.9 122.1 123.2 124.4 125.8 127.3 128.7 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 7 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -14. -20. -25. -30. -33. -34. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/18/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)