* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 25 28 28 26 25 24 17 11 6 5 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 3 6 8 6 -1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 216 242 252 254 255 241 262 270 297 293 255 243 227 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 140 138 135 134 135 137 134 129 122 116 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 70 65 62 53 51 44 42 39 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -27 -28 -34 -35 -23 -25 -6 -6 8 5 14 15 200 MB DIV 80 96 74 56 50 31 -12 -31 -22 1 25 10 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 0 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1461 1481 1506 1531 1562 1605 1664 1737 1841 1956 2064 2167 2268 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.2 119.0 119.8 120.6 122.1 123.3 124.5 125.9 127.3 128.8 130.3 131.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 13 4 1 1 6 12 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. -34. -34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/18/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)