* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/19/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 22 24 27 19 14 6 4 2 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 10 5 1 -1 -5 -1 -1 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 242 248 255 243 230 256 267 306 323 222 164 243 221 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 138 137 134 135 137 136 134 128 122 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 68 64 59 54 49 46 40 38 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -33 -33 -29 -25 -17 0 4 15 21 27 29 200 MB DIV 89 79 52 48 46 3 -22 -34 -2 22 24 5 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 1490 1510 1536 1570 1595 1638 1700 1792 1888 2004 2087 2175 2252 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.0 119.8 120.6 121.4 122.7 123.8 125.0 126.3 127.7 129.0 130.4 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 7 3 2 2 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -22. -24. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/19/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)