* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 23 21 25 23 23 16 11 9 8 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 5 1 -2 -6 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 239 239 229 230 241 287 299 310 300 306 245 237 247 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 136 135 134 135 136 134 128 121 114 108 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 65 63 56 50 45 43 39 34 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -38 -36 -32 -26 -31 -16 -8 9 14 25 22 27 200 MB DIV 70 52 43 47 14 -13 -23 -11 -8 3 0 21 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 2 1 -2 -4 0 0 2 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1502 1526 1555 1577 1594 1649 1714 1808 1909 2004 2082 2175 2250 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.6 120.4 121.1 121.8 123.1 124.2 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.1 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 8 3 2 2 4 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -23. -25. -27. -30. -32. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/19/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)