* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALVIN EP012013 05/19/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 22 23 26 19 15 10 9 9 13 17 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 5 2 -4 -4 -7 -3 0 2 -4 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 244 228 229 242 265 291 289 271 290 217 247 256 268 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 136 137 139 138 134 127 120 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 68 65 55 49 45 43 40 40 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -25 -28 -26 -30 -22 -10 -5 9 7 12 13 15 200 MB DIV 60 58 49 8 6 -4 6 -7 16 15 22 -5 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 3 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 1573 1604 1638 1651 1667 1726 1800 1894 1988 2055 2120 2183 2252 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.4 121.2 121.9 122.5 123.7 124.9 126.2 127.6 128.9 130.1 131.3 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 2 2 2 12 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. -15. -18. -19. -23. -26. -28. -32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012013 ALVIN 05/19/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)