* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022013 05/28/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 48 53 55 56 55 57 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 7 1 7 8 4 5 5 2 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 5 7 6 5 3 -3 -3 -7 -6 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 19 13 350 8 302 31 90 80 139 227 218 43 N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 158 157 151 145 139 137 137 141 146 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 71 73 67 70 73 80 79 79 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 8 11 10 11 10 7 5 5 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 34 40 48 72 89 81 106 95 92 81 113 N/A 200 MB DIV 67 84 96 104 122 102 72 60 59 60 64 93 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -7 -11 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 191 167 144 87 36 -52 -111 -107 -103 -99 -139 -164 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 4 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 27. 29. 31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 TWO 05/28/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)