* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 51 57 60 61 59 54 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 41 36 30 32 34 31 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 33 29 31 31 31 29 27 25 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 5 5 5 14 16 21 19 17 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 1 1 3 -4 0 0 1 0 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 323 311 349 294 280 353 240 240 230 257 245 194 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.7 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 150 140 136 132 130 130 131 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -53.2 -51.9 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 9 11 8 11 9 11 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 73 73 71 66 66 64 69 70 69 70 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 10 10 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 46 59 77 104 89 105 96 76 48 64 105 N/A 200 MB DIV 98 104 108 109 109 52 46 49 47 41 32 52 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -6 -10 0 5 0 -6 8 -1 0 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 164 118 71 1 -78 -61 18 107 92 79 14 -150 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.9 18.8 19.7 19.9 20.0 19.8 18.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 95.6 95.4 95.2 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.2 95.5 95.7 96.3 97.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 7 5 5 3 1 2 5 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 0 0 0 0 3 5 5 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 19. 17. 17. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 6.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 27% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)