* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 68 72 75 75 72 66 60 58 56 55 V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 51 41 32 34 32 25 20 20 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 63 53 42 32 35 35 33 30 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 4 6 7 3 13 18 26 18 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 -3 0 0 -2 0 -5 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 359 48 338 356 282 245 242 247 248 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 158 153 148 139 135 133 132 133 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 71 73 70 62 62 62 70 73 78 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 60 76 103 108 97 114 74 62 54 95 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 110 106 109 83 41 47 32 37 46 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -6 3 7 0 -9 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 140 85 31 -39 -112 -15 66 102 110 75 -50 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.2 19.2 19.6 19.7 19.6 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.8 95.5 95.1 95.0 94.9 94.7 94.8 95.0 95.1 95.5 96.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 1 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 21 9 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 25. 22. 16. 10. 8. 6. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 53% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 46% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 46% is 11.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)