* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 73 75 72 67 62 58 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 55 61 48 39 34 36 33 29 23 19 18 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 51 41 35 37 38 38 37 36 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 2 6 7 4 5 12 12 13 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 1 2 2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 4 105 54 88 230 288 244 265 252 214 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 154 149 143 139 137 135 133 133 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 10 9 11 9 11 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 73 71 67 66 62 65 66 69 70 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 82 103 102 85 100 85 69 43 70 99 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 109 118 92 58 30 26 40 39 40 64 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 8 6 2 0 5 0 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 95 21 -52 -118 -55 43 103 136 144 119 -24 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.4 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 94.6 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.2 94.4 94.6 94.7 95.2 96.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 4 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 10 36 0 0 4 5 4 4 4 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 18. 20. 17. 12. 7. 3. 1. 1. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 5.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 7.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 39% is 10.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)