* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 76 77 77 73 69 65 60 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 65 50 41 35 32 33 28 24 20 15 22 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 65 52 41 35 32 33 35 36 36 35 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 7 6 3 2 4 7 7 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 0 -3 -5 -1 -4 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 147 45 79 111 293 236 260 240 245 177 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 150 146 143 141 137 136 135 133 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 71 66 63 68 65 65 65 65 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 6 4 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 105 99 79 86 99 82 71 65 97 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 107 82 54 42 33 31 39 58 46 46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 6 5 2 1 -1 1 0 4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 23 -52 -128 -89 -50 16 68 54 49 13 -166 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.1 93.8 93.9 93.9 94.0 94.3 94.6 95.0 95.8 97.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 1 3 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 39 0 0 0 4 4 4 2 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 8. 4. 0. -5. -7. -7. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/29/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)