* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 58 56 54 52 49 47 48 50 V (KT) LAND 50 40 41 43 44 46 44 42 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 40 40 40 41 43 43 42 41 31 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 1 2 4 5 12 14 14 10 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 1 -6 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 322 23 23 141 200 265 235 251 227 210 202 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 27.1 28.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 148 144 141 138 134 132 130 130 134 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 11 11 9 12 10 12 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 63 57 60 56 59 58 59 57 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 98 84 92 106 91 79 71 76 87 76 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 74 43 28 27 13 14 51 48 40 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 8 3 1 1 0 -5 0 1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -84 -76 17 73 115 122 121 65 29 -116 -182 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.4 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 93.8 93.6 93.9 94.2 94.7 95.3 95.8 96.2 97.5 99.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 7 5 4 3 3 2 4 9 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 0 1 6 6 6 5 2 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -2. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/30/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)