* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARBARA EP022013 05/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 22 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 20 22 25 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 12 14 17 12 9 15 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 -3 2 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 269 249 240 240 258 250 249 221 184 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 133 133 132 136 138 139 144 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 59 59 61 61 60 56 60 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 94 85 81 93 66 86 79 84 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 34 42 30 23 44 47 31 13 36 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -8 -4 1 -2 0 -7 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 3 1 -8 -18 -72 -154 -236 -241 -45 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.9 18.9 19.2 19.3 18.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.5 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.7 100.0 101.9 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022013 BARBARA 05/30/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)