* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 42 43 45 42 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 42 43 39 31 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 37 37 37 33 28 29 25 21 19 18 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 23 28 30 37 49 56 74 86 84 66 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 9 6 5 -1 2 8 -2 -7 -6 3 12 SHEAR DIR 231 247 229 221 228 226 234 240 252 258 278 255 216 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.0 20.3 13.4 7.9 7.5 17.7 16.2 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 120 113 107 102 86 73 71 71 82 79 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 107 103 98 95 81 71 70 71 79 76 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.5 -52.0 -49.9 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 67 68 70 64 59 56 51 50 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 15 15 16 14 18 16 11 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 17 54 60 58 83 106 35 -4 12 66 144 200 MB DIV 105 103 104 113 110 70 59 18 5 -11 -20 20 45 700-850 TADV 13 26 13 26 27 20 39 82 74 -77 -122 -120 -107 LAND (KM) 418 373 316 187 43 47 -47 92 53 155 921 1675 766 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.2 26.8 28.0 29.2 32.2 36.2 40.7 44.1 45.3 43.9 45.1 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.2 85.8 84.7 83.6 80.1 76.4 70.9 63.3 53.5 42.0 30.5 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 11 15 18 23 28 32 34 38 41 41 41 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 24/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -29. -38. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 8. 10. 7. 4. -7. -24. -39. -50. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED