* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 51 51 50 46 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 45 37 30 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 49 48 36 30 31 28 25 22 21 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 28 31 31 31 34 49 57 82 88 67 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 3 0 5 0 6 -10 -8 9 20 10 SHEAR DIR 246 225 216 220 219 218 233 240 258 269 277 255 193 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 24.8 24.0 22.2 13.8 8.1 9.2 10.6 16.7 15.4 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 113 107 102 94 74 70 71 72 79 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 102 102 98 94 88 72 69 70 70 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -51.9 -51.2 -49.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 65 67 65 67 64 66 66 53 50 48 38 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 17 16 15 14 14 15 13 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 27 60 67 60 97 113 38 -19 17 39 184 66 200 MB DIV 106 80 115 132 64 109 65 52 0 -29 -2 29 33 700-850 TADV 20 15 21 22 9 44 40 34 -54 -121 -98 -44 -53 LAND (KM) 331 223 127 -23 -82 -126 70 11 235 518 1245 1322 378 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.7 28.6 30.1 31.5 35.4 40.1 43.4 44.8 45.1 44.7 46.2 49.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 85.6 85.0 83.6 82.2 78.3 73.0 65.5 56.4 46.8 37.2 26.1 14.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 15 19 22 28 32 32 34 34 36 42 43 HEAT CONTENT 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -30. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -6. -19. -36. -50. -57. -59. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED