* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 56 54 50 46 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 53 45 38 34 33 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 47 39 35 33 32 30 28 27 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 26 31 30 34 38 59 80 70 60 38 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 0 1 0 4 2 -8 6 9 15 19 SHEAR DIR 223 211 214 207 209 219 235 245 262 273 265 228 145 SST (C) 25.9 25.1 24.7 23.9 23.5 18.6 14.8 7.8 5.3 12.7 16.4 13.8 9.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 107 106 102 99 80 74 71 71 75 77 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 96 97 95 92 75 71 70 70 73 74 72 72 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -51.4 -48.8 -51.2 -48.8 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 67 68 69 66 52 51 53 51 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 18 19 17 19 22 19 14 9 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 23 49 43 59 83 90 78 17 23 107 118 208 212 200 MB DIV 76 125 128 66 65 82 75 39 -31 -20 19 43 58 700-850 TADV 29 25 34 19 6 3 19 16 -68 -57 -86 -83 -61 LAND (KM) 206 94 -50 -10 -61 59 147 23 -13 769 1713 1066 796 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.8 29.7 31.8 33.8 37.2 40.2 44.3 47.5 47.8 44.8 48.1 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.9 83.9 82.8 81.3 79.7 75.1 70.6 63.6 53.7 42.5 30.9 23.9 21.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 19 24 25 24 28 35 37 39 32 33 42 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -17. -24. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 0. -5. -10. -11. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -18. -37. -53. -59. -60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED