* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 52 47 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 44 37 34 31 31 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 38 34 31 33 32 32 28 25 24 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 29 25 24 25 27 45 58 71 72 52 35 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 4 0 -3 8 21 17 13 SHEAR DIR 213 217 214 213 214 233 246 265 277 280 265 238 194 SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.0 15.1 8.6 6.0 6.1 15.7 14.9 12.4 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 101 100 97 75 70 70 70 77 75 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 93 92 90 73 69 69 70 74 72 68 67 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -53.0 -50.0 -48.6 -47.9 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 68 69 68 69 68 60 56 60 55 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 20 19 20 16 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 50 42 49 68 84 93 36 -25 10 84 139 172 187 200 MB DIV 102 109 76 60 93 40 51 0 -38 -16 15 38 56 700-850 TADV 22 26 17 6 17 -17 49 16 -3 -40 2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 87 -102 -17 -39 -90 105 47 100 336 1100 1366 813 555 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.3 31.6 33.4 35.1 39.4 43.7 46.1 46.4 46.7 47.3 49.9 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 82.7 81.4 79.8 78.1 73.1 66.6 58.6 48.7 38.3 27.8 21.4 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 20 22 26 31 31 32 35 36 30 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -22. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -9. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -18. -32. -49. -60. -68. -73. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED