* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 38 40 38 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 30 29 30 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 32 30 28 30 27 28 24 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 28 30 31 36 53 68 73 66 55 46 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 3 1 1 -4 -3 9 13 6 6 SHEAR DIR 210 214 215 214 215 236 249 268 272 269 260 252 256 SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.9 17.8 12.3 7.6 7.0 11.7 16.1 15.6 13.8 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 98 96 79 72 69 70 73 78 76 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 91 90 75 70 69 69 71 75 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.0 -51.0 -49.7 -50.6 -54.0 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 70 69 70 66 69 67 63 57 57 54 56 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 19 22 20 20 19 15 13 11 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 58 78 101 120 101 26 19 44 105 102 19 -10 200 MB DIV 110 83 86 108 106 79 36 3 -21 -1 25 29 28 700-850 TADV 19 15 5 15 1 18 40 39 -119 -46 -7 -19 8 LAND (KM) -43 -37 -52 -107 -33 34 -33 78 622 1399 1295 644 223 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.5 33.1 35.1 37.1 41.3 44.8 46.1 45.8 45.4 45.6 46.2 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 81.7 80.4 78.4 76.3 70.7 64.0 55.4 45.1 34.8 25.0 15.9 7.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 23 26 28 30 30 33 36 35 33 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -17. -25. -31. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0. -1. -6. -7. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 0. -2. -6. -16. -30. -43. -52. -57. -57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED