* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 36 34 34 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 34 32 32 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 30 32 29 27 22 18 17 16 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 24 28 34 36 47 67 75 71 59 51 33 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 3 4 0 6 0 -3 0 8 5 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 220 209 208 214 220 240 256 262 263 257 250 274 N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.7 23.2 18.3 15.5 8.7 5.9 5.5 17.1 16.3 14.0 12.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 100 98 80 75 70 69 69 80 79 76 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 92 90 76 73 69 68 69 76 76 74 72 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -52.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -52.9 -55.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 68 66 68 59 50 49 49 63 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 20 18 21 21 20 16 13 16 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 73 101 118 108 71 21 50 74 113 118 40 N/A 200 MB DIV 89 87 106 84 59 66 22 -9 -3 16 40 23 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 6 9 0 -11 29 8 -14 -141 -142 -62 21 N/A LAND (KM) -30 -43 -89 3 84 97 69 211 953 1656 787 151 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 33.3 35.0 37.0 39.0 43.2 46.0 46.3 45.0 44.9 46.6 48.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 79.9 78.2 75.9 73.6 67.0 59.0 50.4 41.0 30.0 17.7 6.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 25 27 30 32 30 31 36 41 41 38 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 17 CX,CY: 10/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. -9. -21. -29. -34. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -11. -23. -38. -49. -48. -45. -47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED