* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 40 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 37 38 38 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 35 34 33 29 25 21 19 18 19 22 DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 37 35 37 43 61 70 56 48 35 27 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 1 6 -1 -2 9 10 9 7 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 207 211 222 231 233 253 260 259 244 210 183 171 N/A SST (C) 22.7 18.1 15.1 12.5 9.5 6.4 5.1 13.3 13.1 11.8 11.0 10.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 79 75 73 71 70 69 72 71 69 69 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 75 72 71 70 69 68 70 69 67 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -52.2 -50.7 -48.5 -45.7 -45.0 -46.0 -46.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 66 63 56 50 56 58 49 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 22 22 23 24 23 21 23 28 30 32 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 108 110 112 86 47 73 142 222 226 244 237 N/A 200 MB DIV 107 79 58 67 80 28 6 15 26 50 75 71 N/A 700-850 TADV 16 -2 -7 12 31 3 -68 -138 -74 -33 -16 -11 N/A LAND (KM) -132 -53 47 44 117 54 201 813 1358 1199 757 410 N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 37.0 38.9 41.1 43.3 45.6 46.7 48.0 49.5 51.1 53.1 55.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 76.6 74.3 71.1 67.9 59.5 50.4 41.9 34.4 27.6 21.4 15.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 30 33 32 32 31 28 25 22 22 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 22 CX,CY: 13/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -11. -20. -24. -26. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 3. 7. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -7. -20. -32. -36. -39. -42. -46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.5/ -0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED