* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 37 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 42 42 35 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 40 37 32 31 25 22 20 21 22 25 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 33 38 42 53 70 72 53 41 39 33 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 6 4 -4 1 8 9 10 7 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 215 220 232 241 247 249 265 252 231 215 188 169 N/A SST (C) 17.0 14.8 11.9 8.7 7.5 6.5 6.6 14.7 13.1 11.6 11.3 10.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 75 72 70 69 69 69 73 71 70 70 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 72 70 69 68 68 68 70 69 67 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -51.6 -49.1 -47.8 -45.9 -46.7 -47.9 -49.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 70 69 59 53 54 63 60 59 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 20 20 22 22 20 20 17 20 22 24 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 102 103 70 40 72 106 187 233 222 197 161 N/A 200 MB DIV 79 59 68 59 49 20 -1 18 44 53 66 73 N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -27 8 21 35 -56 -110 -180 -134 -20 -23 -40 N/A LAND (KM) -38 89 13 72 -60 13 473 1065 1481 966 497 301 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 39.5 41.6 43.4 45.2 46.7 47.4 48.3 49.7 51.4 53.9 57.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.2 73.3 70.3 66.8 63.3 55.2 46.5 38.5 31.1 24.3 17.6 11.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 31 31 31 30 29 29 26 24 23 24 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 30 CX,CY: 19/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 1. -11. -19. -24. -27. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -16. -28. -44. -48. -53. -55. -57. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.6/ -1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED