* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 38 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 32 35 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 36 31 32 27 23 20 19 19 19 21 DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 40 51 59 66 72 61 52 48 41 32 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 0 -4 -3 7 11 10 8 6 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 224 236 237 249 247 259 255 249 231 203 173 170 N/A SST (C) 13.6 11.0 9.0 7.3 5.6 4.5 12.1 14.2 13.2 11.7 11.0 9.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 72 70 69 68 68 71 73 71 70 70 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 71 69 68 68 67 69 70 69 68 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.0 -50.4 -49.0 -47.8 -46.4 -47.0 -48.1 -50.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 68 69 63 53 48 48 53 53 51 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 21 21 20 18 16 20 21 23 21 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 99 72 50 66 95 118 192 215 196 167 72 N/A 200 MB DIV 60 67 52 52 31 17 5 16 51 69 69 69 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 24 41 63 17 -73 -141 -75 -24 -18 -29 -44 N/A LAND (KM) 23 39 30 -5 59 114 732 1304 1265 738 255 70 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.1 42.3 44.5 45.8 47.0 47.5 47.7 48.1 49.6 51.5 54.7 58.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 70.4 67.0 63.2 59.4 51.3 43.0 35.3 27.9 21.0 13.7 6.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 33 31 29 28 28 27 26 24 25 27 27 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 28 CX,CY: 16/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 1. -12. -22. -28. -30. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -1. 0. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -15. -32. -43. -49. -54. -60. -65. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.1/ -2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED