* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 38 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 34 36 36 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 32 34 31 27 22 20 19 20 21 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 47 58 68 72 62 49 35 30 27 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 1 -6 -7 1 10 9 8 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 239 247 246 250 258 249 238 208 179 160 N/A N/A SST (C) 11.0 8.8 7.4 5.8 6.1 5.3 13.9 12.0 10.8 10.8 10.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 72 70 69 68 68 68 72 70 69 69 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 69 68 68 68 67 69 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.1 -50.8 -48.9 -46.9 -45.2 -45.0 -46.1 -47.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 61 53 46 52 60 63 62 62 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 23 21 21 19 18 17 18 20 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 77 65 66 87 121 177 242 266 235 177 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 64 49 35 24 -3 13 33 49 75 100 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 42 54 49 -8 -58 -143 -123 -60 -61 -52 -39 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 38 63 -7 69 7 398 966 1471 1081 638 424 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 44.1 45.8 46.6 47.3 48.2 49.1 50.6 52.5 55.0 58.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.4 66.9 63.4 59.5 55.5 47.5 39.8 32.8 26.2 19.7 13.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 30 29 28 28 26 25 23 23 24 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 34 CX,CY: 24/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 2. -9. -16. -20. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -8. -20. -37. -48. -54. -60. -67. -70. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 56.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.3/ -2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED