* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 43 47 47 47 46 47 44 44 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 33 36 36 32 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 31 32 34 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 18 17 11 15 11 12 11 12 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 0 -3 3 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 209 232 249 256 249 256 238 243 260 262 257 279 306 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 154 159 160 156 151 149 149 149 149 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 148 153 151 144 137 133 133 133 133 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 63 64 63 67 64 63 60 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 8 10 8 8 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 0 -14 -18 -14 -11 -3 2 2 5 1 -9 200 MB DIV 47 34 32 23 7 21 23 30 16 36 4 4 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -8 -3 2 6 5 LAND (KM) 38 -81 -176 -77 -22 73 92 44 -27 -94 -167 -202 -181 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.2 92.2 93.7 95.0 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.5 99.1 99.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 9 7 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 63 0 0 27 14 15 10 30 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 13. 17. 17. 17. 16. 17. 14. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/17/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)