* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022013 06/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 40 41 38 39 39 41 41 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 31 32 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 31 32 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 16 16 14 20 17 10 15 12 11 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 -5 -2 -2 0 4 0 0 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 245 251 257 259 240 245 244 247 257 260 270 288 299 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 156 158 159 157 153 150 149 151 153 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 146 149 149 149 145 139 135 134 138 139 134 129 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 7 10 8 11 9 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 68 64 65 67 68 70 71 70 68 67 66 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 8 9 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 0 0 -2 -5 3 6 14 16 21 21 27 200 MB DIV 52 47 21 15 19 32 29 16 34 8 9 2 -9 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 -3 4 -4 -9 -3 -3 -4 -2 5 0 LAND (KM) -14 -117 -157 -111 -77 -6 15 6 -30 -119 -245 -238 -234 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.6 90.6 91.4 92.2 93.5 94.8 95.7 96.3 97.4 98.8 99.7 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 4 6 6 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 27 0 9 2 27 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 TWO 06/18/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 TWO 06/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)